Blackjack insurance: is it ever worth it?
Quick answer: don’t take insurance, and don’t take even money either. Insurance pays 2 to 1, but in a six-deck game the dealer has a ten underneath only about 30.9% of the time, so you lose about 7.4% of every insurance bet. The only exception is for card counters at a high true count.
What blackjack insurance is
When the dealer’s upcard is an ace, you’re offered insurance. You can bet up to half your original bet that the dealer’s hole card is a ten-value card (10, J, Q or K), which would give the dealer blackjack. If it is, insurance pays 2 to 1; if it isn’t, you lose the insurance bet and the hand plays on.
The name suggests protection, but insurance is really a separate side bet on a single card. Whether it’s a good bet depends only on how likely that card is to be a ten.
The math: why insurance loses
In a six-deck shoe, once you’ve seen the dealer’s ace (and nothing else), 311 cards remain and 96 of them are tens. That’s a probability of 30.87%. Insurance pays 2 to 1, so it would need the ten to show up more than one time in three just to break even.
Expected value per unit of insurance: 2 × 0.3087 − 0.6913 = −0.074. You lose about 7.4 cents of every dollar you put on insurance, which is far worse than the main game played well.
| Decks | Expected loss on the insurance bet |
|---|---|
| 1 deck | about 5.9% |
| 6 decks | about 7.4% |
| 8 decks | about 7.5% |
Compare that with about 0.36% for the whole game on a good six-deck table with perfect basic strategy. Insurance is one of the most expensive bets you can make at the table.
Even money is insurance in disguise
When you have blackjack and the dealer shows an ace, the dealer usually offers “even money”: a guaranteed 1-to-1 payout right away. It sounds safe, and it is: you always win exactly one bet. But it’s mathematically identical to insuring your blackjack.
| Your choice | What happens | Average result |
|---|---|---|
| Take even money | Paid 1 bet, always | 1.000 bet |
| Decline | Paid 1.5 bets about 69.13% of the time, push otherwise | about 1.037 bets |
Declining is better by about 0.037 bets each time, roughly 3.7%. You’ll sometimes push, and that can sting, but over many blackjacks declining pays more.
“But I have a good hand”: the protection myth
Many players insure a 20 or a blackjack “to protect it” and never insure a 12. That has it backwards: the insurance bet only cares about the dealer’s hole card, and your hand doesn’t change the chance of a ten. If insurance is a bad bet with 12, it’s the same bad bet with 20.
At European tables with no hole card, such as in Spanish casinos, insurance is offered the same way and is equally bad.
The one exception: card counters
Insurance becomes a good bet only when more than one in three of the remaining cards are tens. In a shoe game, that happens around a Hi-Lo true count of +3 or more, which is why insurance is one of the first plays card counters learn. If you aren’t keeping an accurate count, the answer is always no.
Remember: no side bet or rule makes blackjack profitable for a basic-strategy player. Play with money you can afford to lose and read our responsible gambling page if it stops being fun.
Want the right answer to become automatic? Drill it on the free practice table, which corrects every decision and tells you why.
Frequently asked questions
Should you ever take insurance in blackjack?
Not if you play basic strategy. In a six-deck game insurance loses about 7.4% of every insurance bet. It only becomes profitable when more than one in three remaining cards are tens, which card counters detect at a Hi-Lo true count of about +3 or more.
Should I take even money with a blackjack?
No. Even money guarantees one bet. Declining it pays 1.5 bets about 69% of the time and a push the rest, worth about 1.037 bets on average. Declining is better by about 3.7%.
Does insurance protect a good hand like 20?
No, that’s a myth. Insurance is a separate side bet on the dealer’s hole card. Its value doesn’t depend on your hand at all, so it’s just as bad with 20 as with 12.
Is insurance different at European tables with no hole card?
It’s offered the same way and it’s equally bad. The dealer takes the second card later, but the bet still pays 2 to 1 on a card that is a ten less than one time in three.